Science Isn’t Broken It’s just a hell of a lot harder than we give it credit for.

2024 Election Why 'Bidenomics' Isn't Working For Biden The economy is improving, but Americans aren't giving Biden credit for it.

Longtime readers of FiveThirtyEight are probably familiar with our pollster ratings: letter grades that we assign to pollsters based on their historical accuracy and transparency. Since 2008, we ...

The United States is changing rapidly. The oldest baby boomers are into their retirement years, and the median age of the U.S. population is climbing. At the same time, each generation is more ...

2024 Election Why Trump Is Favored To Win The 2024 Republican Presidential Primary The polls, and history, are on his side.

It wasn’t long ago that the U.S. economy needed a shot in the arm. Millions of Americans had lost their jobs as the country shut itself down to slow the spread … ...

Voting Rights How Majority-Minority Districts Fueled Diversity In Congress And why people of color are winning more seats outside of those districts too.

The Details FiveThirtyEight’s Senate, House and gubernatorial models are mostly unchanged from 2018, so the large majority of the methodological detail below will still apply. There are, however ...

If the NBA is a star-driven league, the Brooklyn Nets might be the supernova of basketball. In Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving and James Harden, the Nets have a pedi… ...

The biggest knock on Oklahoma’s Kyler Murray is his size. Does that matter? Like the rest of the league, practitioners of analytics have a pretty poor track record at predicting QB success. It ...

The Real Story Of 2016 What reporters — and lots of data geeks, too — missed about the election, and what they’re still getting wrong.

We could make a case for starting a story on the historical context for the 2015 U.K. general election with the Roman Emperor Hadrian’s decision to build a wall… ...